Hi Maurice, BTW, I forgive you, because you cannot help yourself but believe. You are so very wrong about Al Greensponge and you will see soon enough.
<<The USA consumer is 95% employed ... pay ... spend ... groceries, clothes, SUVs, petrol, gasoline ... CDMA phone>>
Yes, all true, but this is not the stuff that supports the current stock valuation, much less the past peak valuation. Financial laws can be tempered with, for a while, but are ultimately immutable.
<<Debt is not out of control in the USA>>
... Do not know for sure, suspect it is, not waiting to find out for certain, content to watch from far away, until the smoke clears, and screaming stops.
<<Debt is well under control in the USA. There are all sorts of debt control.>>
... And yet bankruptcies rise, mortgages go delinquent, and telcos blowup.
<<They are not tapped out>>
... Home refinancing traditionally (pre 4th quarter 2000) was accompanied by credit card debt reduction due to debt consolidation, until the 4th quarter, when both grew. For the Q1 2001, home refinancing was accompanied by cash withdraw from home equity, even as credit card debt grew. People are spending their houses now.
The trend is not good, unless we have indeed chanced upon the fabled perpetual motion machine.
<<They keep on earning, they keep on spending.>>
... and they keep on not saving, until they realize they need to fund their own retirement, and when they do, the third leg of the economy will be kicked out from under the system via consumption collapse, triggering deflation.
<<six months ... doomsters learn ... end of the world is NOT nigh>>
It is not necessary for the world to end in order to make a mess of things. End of growth, for a while, will do plenty of damage to valuation of all things economic.
<<Alan Green$pan ... the great Maestro ... the US$ ... greatest currency in human history ... mid 1980s to the 21st century>> maybe, but where to now?
The dollar will be devalued soon enough, and if not, will instead explode later; and if yes, the world will explode instead, taking the US with it. If I am wrong, less than big deal to me, and if I am right, possibly big deal to you. Do you really like such odds?
<<It has been a great era ... average middle class working American is ignorant ... smart people ... understand ... stuff ... market models ... predict ... markets ... figure out which companies will flourish ... continue to do extremely well>>
No one did well this year based on smarts. The wellness this year was achieved through the taking on of extraordinary risk. Get out now and save yourself.
Chugs, Jay
morganstanley.com |
