Good article. As long as Russia maintains their arsenal, they aren't worried. But that conflicts with the goal that I thought most people had towards arms reduction.
You may have seen the exchange that I had with Neocon on the subject. He held the vision that BMD makes nuclear weapons obsolete. Presuming that the BMD system would grow to be effective against a threat such as Russia possesses. Should I argue Neocon's point in light of Bush's claims and Putin's understanding, throw it off as an unrealistic fantasy, or debate the vision?
So I'm debating a moving topic. [Which I think I've done pretty well, since the topic is moved on me rather than countering the logic]. Is it a rogue nation threat or a system that evolves to counter a large arsenal? Does it make nuclear weapons obsolete or is it destabilizing? Which is more likely a rogue nation/terrorist using an intercontinental [or mid-range ballistic missile] or using a lower cost, non-BMD detectable delivery system, anywhere from a cruise missile to a Chevy Suburban. Even with an effective BMD system, is it reasonable to say that the rogue nation would choose an attack that has an effective defense or would it use a means that satisfies the objective of terror?
And I've countered the argument of a viable nuclear retaliation. It's not practical for the US to respond to a successfull major nuclear retaliation either because we can't associate a country to retailiate against, e.g., Ben Laden or a Palestinian terrorist or because of the drifting mushroom cloud. The only viable option is a pre-emptive non-nuclear attack....which is a lower cost, more reliable, and more politically acceptable.
There is nothing that is really substantive to gain in the development of a BMD system that may or may not be effective. And it's an expensive system that directly or indirectly diverts limited resources [$$$] from developing a more effective intelligence system that we need to be able to detect capability and intent to use [nuclear weapons].
Other than that, I have no problem with BMD. It's neat! Lots of technical challenges.
jttmab |
