>>Seems a FEW folks are thinking of doing some buying anyway. <g> <<
Well I put this in my comments last night.....
... Earnings and forward guidance still terrible but market holding together pretty well considering. The big question is is it all options expiration or is some denial and bullishness starting to set in again as the market looks for any sign of good times ahead.
Not sure, market doesn't look healthy and without the strength of MSFT and QCOM which are weighted so heavily, we would likely be below the April lows now as many of the other techs are near or below their prior lows.
I am still seeing the possibility of that "C" of "4" although it is getting harder to have it happen the longer we wait. The only real reason other than being able to visualize it on the chart, is it would fit the old saying of the market always moves so the least number of people make the most money. To pull this C wave off, we would have to break above the big resistance line around 1800 NDX. That would have all the hopeful bulls going nuts proclaiming the end of the bear and piling in. What better time to have a 5th wave down. As I have said here many times, 5th waves are fast and furious. I just have a hard time believing we are going to melt down from here without a bounce first. Of course until the charts show this scenario, it is just a WAG, and possibly a far reaching one at that.
The reason I am saying this tonight is not to play long for the bounce but to not get too aggressive on the short side. There are possible bullish flags developing in MSFT and a few other key indexes and stocks. I wold only play long if you could babysit the position and only after the move begins. This is no tie to be catching falling knives.
I haven't done anything much in my own accounts as I have been busy at work and these little whipsaw days are too hard to trade from work. We haven't had enough bounces for me to sell short calls ( at least while I was paying attention ) . I am just waiting for the market to make a move and hoping we just don't keep bleeding down on low volume like this.
While the news has been bad, some stocks are also giving some bullish hints. EMC had a horrible report today yet it is approaching a minor support line and is very over sold. JDSU is signalling possible buys and many other networkers are getting quite over sold. My VIX is at a mid tine and is going to have to decide if it should reverse down pushing the market up or go on into the panic level zone soon. Yesterday's littel move up fooled my system into saying to enter some longs and while it was wrong, it shows that things are primed to head north if we can put together a little Mo Mo. Also note my weeklies were on a buy last week so we may be getting close to a low for a couple weeks. ...
Hey, FA says sell but we should have been dropping more than this so that may be saying we bounce. Note the last few quarters where we moved up later in teh earnings period. I admitted to Don that this is totally subjective but the hopeful bulls are trying anything to try and justify a buy. However they can't do it during warnings season or early in the reporting period because no matter how much denial they try to use, the announcements tell it like it is and slap them back down. However once your company warns or announces earnings, then you can dream of any fantasy you want. As Jeff Goldbloom said in the Big Chill, "don't knock rationalization, it is more important than sex." -gggg-
Good Luck,
Lee |
