s berg: Well my after hours voodoo is still working...<g> Looks like we are going to get a move up...
It has been a while since I was unsure of the direction of the Naz Comp. After reviewing the charts again this morning, I could make a case for the market heading higher. However, I could also make a case for my scenario continuing to unfold, but with less confidence now.
So, instead of vacillating, I am going to stick with my original call Sunday 7/8, looking for 7/19 to be a pivot date making at least a lower high today (+/- one trading day). This should be followed by a decline into my next projected "possible" turn date of 8/7 for a low.
As I pointed out last Sunday, the COMPX is trading in a falling wedge originating from the 5/22 high and the NYA is trading in a falling channel originating from the 5/22 high. The COMPX falling wedge more so than the NYA falling channel suggest an eventually break above their respective resistance lines.
The NYA is trading much closer to its resistance line. A move up to test the high it set at the open on 7/16 today would also result in a test of the resistance line of its in play falling channel. If the market turns back down today or Friday, this is going to be close.
The COMPX has several patterns and trend lines in play mudding up the waters. A falling wedge from the 7/13 high, a falling resistance line from the 7/2 high, a rising support line from the 4/4 low and the controlling pattern a falling wedge from the 5/22 high. Couple those with a myriad of retrace lines and horizontal support / resistance areas in play and you have a murky soup.
Most important is to keep an eye on the controlling trend lines of the falling patterns for both the NYA and COMPX originating from the 5/22 high. A repel at or just below the resistance lines would be favorable to my original scenario. However, a break above, more than just a testing breach would suggest more upside.
I have provided some charts so you can see what Ii am referring to. Keep in mind, I day trade using these charts and while they may seem cluttered when viewed in wider time frames, up close the charts clear up.
To view My QCharts referenced in the above post click on the link below and then click on the indicated chart link.
lgscharts.homestead.com
My QChart "Intraday" Semi-log Scale Charts
NYA (NYSE Comp) 130-Min Chart – Click on Chart 4
NYA (NYSE Comp) 15-Min Chart – Click on Chart 5
COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) 130-Min Chart – Click on Chart 6
COMPX (NASDAQ Comp) 30-Min Chart – Click on Chart 7
Regards,
LG
Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on any one person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions. |
