Rob - You are quite right that I would have mentioned the securities held for sale. As for burn rate, according to the financial data they released, and without meaningful revenue, ASTN realized a net "operating" loss of $13.6 Million last year (the year ended 3/31/01) -- which is slightly over $1.1 Million per month. This figure is operating data -- meaning that it excludes extraordinary "one-time" charges. It also does not yet fully reflect the effect of the cutbacks, the elimination of eMC, etc., which have lowered the burn rate appreciably since the first of the year.
Based on those numbers, it is reasonable to assume the the current burn rate is in the vicinity of $1 - 1.1 MM per month (which is in line with the last webcast) -- and that assumes there is no revenue at all. As you point out, they have traded a bunch of shares on eVWAP since April 1, and the average volumes continue to improve. It is reasonable to assume that there is probably somewhere between $200,000 - $300,000 in gross revenue per month now due to eVWAP volumes alone -- based on current volume levels and "per share" gross revenue figures preciously projected by the company. With the RGC financing issues deferred for at least a year, and access to equity in place with Jameson (or so it seems - let's wait for the specifics before drawing any conclusions), it appears that Mary's prediction that ASTN will run out of cash and fold their tent by September will turn out to be about as accurate as the rest of her posts.
Hope you have a great vacation. I just got back myself from a one week "much needed" vacation in Lake Tahoe -- although I can't imagine a more beautiful place on the planet to unwind than Lake Tahoe, I hope you find a great spot to enjoy your "much needed" vacation.
Take care.
Mark |
