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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (44705)	7/19/2001 3:57:07 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Thomas, we have two extreme choices. One is to concentrate on the recent data, the leveling of profits', quarter to quarter. We could then assume that 15 cents a quarter is the best that Sebl can do. The other extreme choice is to ignore that situation and assume that after a short time Sebl will resume doubling its earnings every year. Common sense suggests a compromise position. But I think it should be nearer the low figure than the high figure because the company has already shown us that it is vulnerable to the general economy. 40 times earnings used to be a rich price and 40 times current earnings for Sebl would be 24. Also we have to look at the reports and determine the cash flow before buying. Anyway, MIke Buckley has remarked that many end users , i.e. sales people, don't like Sebl software or any software that he/she feels controls his/her activities. So in a difficult time, the cost conscious CEO may listen harder to the protests of the sales people. I feel we could do best by waiting for a price which didn't have the assumption of a quick turnaround, given the angst of Siebel himself.

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