Thanks, Don. I can't remember a vacation where I had a better or more relaxing time. I have a feeling I'll be spending a lot of time there in the future - winter and summer. I assume you've been there - if not, you should check it out -- there is nothing quite like an Alpine lake.
My brother told me about the "rumor" on Yahoo that I had sold all of my ASTN stock before leaving for my vacation, and that my saying I was on vacation was a sham (totally false, of course). Pretty laughable if it were not so pathetic that people actually think they have to make this stuff up. To be honest, I'm fairly pumped (despite the claims of some that the 10K is devastating), what with the RGC situation resolved, the "Guarantied Fill" program in place and other things that point the way to continued progress in achieving company objectives. My sense is that the guarantied fill program was designed to address the issues raised by the list players (i.e., BOTB) and we should hopefully see some sign of that in the weeks and months ahead (through increasing volumes on eVWAP). As for the 10K, there were no real surprises, very little that the bashers have not been harping on for months on end -- just a lot of cautious "lawyerly" phrasing of the risks and issues that we have known about (and worried about) for the past year or so (delisting, dilution, etc.).
And, as usual, in between the lines, there was some very positive stuff that can barely be seen or heard over the "sturm und drang" of the bashing community, which continues (inexplicably, if you ask me) to smother the message boards with negative spin. Some of the positives ----> the CroixNet Reg ATS filing (which will presumably lead to eCLOSE and eVWAP NASDAQ trading outside the auspices of the PHLX if the PHLX does not get the UTP approval that it has been waiting on for the past 7 months), the discussions ASTN has apparently had with one or more strategic partners (discussions that are far enough along that they felt a need to make general reference to it in the 10K) , the resolution of COH, funding and burn rate issues in a manner that apparently made it possible for the annual report to be issued without a "going concern" qualification (and which points to at least another year of operations assuming revenue at current levels), 70 Million shares of daily liquidity commitments, etc. The only unexpected negative (from where I sit) was the mention of some screw-up in a registration statement for a couple of million shares that were issued (the one which incorrectly attached the FY2000 financial statement) -- that in theory could expose them to a $2 Million claim in the future assuming the stock tanks even more than it already has (there is no such claim, just a disclosure that one may be possible).
In any event, my personal view is that ATG has resolved its immediate financial concerns and will be operating long after September 2001 (and certainly for a long enough time so that those of us who made this investment on a long term basis will get to see the company mature even more than it has over the past 3-6 months, in which conspicuous progress was made -- especially in terms of increasing volumes on eVWAP, which is the only number that truly matters, and which has shown steady improvement on a month-to-month comparative basis since they first hit a 7-figure volume day 5 months ago). Let's face it -- if ATG does not succeed in increasing eVWAP volumes to the point that the company becomes positively cash-flowing, we are all screwed, with or without future dilution -- and if they do, the dilution (which we have all known about and have been anticipating for the past 6-12 months) will matter, but only slightly in the relative scheme of things. If survival means dilution, well, I choose survival, since it will allow us to see if the company will harvest the seeds it has been planting for past 3-5 years.
It must be very disappointing to those who so desperately want to see ASTN fail that that it won't happen before eVWAP starts trading NASDAQ stocks and reaping the benefit of the liquidity commitments they have recently secured. Which begs the question -- what will the bashers come up with next to scare investors if eVWAP actually does start generating 10+ Million share volumes on a regular basis? I personally think we will get to see the answer to that one before too much longer. IMO, of course.
This has never been a sure thing -- far from it -- and those who claim that I have viewed it as a sure thing are full of it. As you know better than most, we have always discussed and weighed the speculative risk in the exchange of information that has taken place among the company's supporters on the web, and many of us have stuck with it despite some pretty formidable disappointments. Without illusions about the risks, but also without the instinctive negative emotions of those who want the company to fail. I can point to a dozen disappointments, but with 7 figure volumes (albeit irregular ones), and 70 Million shares in daily commitments from stock dealers, you can't say that the company is not making progress, or that nobody is interested in eVWAP as a trading system.
I have my regrets (not taking some of my investment off the table when the stock was above $10, for starters) but they are tempered by fidelity to a long term investment strategy. In this market, there is barely a technology related stock out there that has not hurt investors over the past year or two, and I tend to consider the ASTN disappointments in that context. The difference is that it will take only what most longs have expected all along to turn this one around dramatically, whereas the more established technology companies have far greater obstacles to overcome in order to return to prior historical highs -- since their P/Es were so totally out of whack with reality prior to the spring of 2000 (and still are arguably). And while ASTN remains a highly speculative play, there is a lot to be encouraged about -- much more now than a year or two ago, and enough that, at sub-$1 prices, it is (in my opinion anyway) worth sticking with for the foreseeable future.
We shall see -- but you can be certain that I will still be here to fight the good fight as long as this Company continues to make progress and mature. Take care.
MST |
