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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace
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To: AllansAlias who wrote (7628)7/19/2001 9:39:55 PM
From: The Freep  Read Replies (1) of 209892
 
Allan -- I was talking with a very wise trader friend of mine who was speaking of the "cult of Microsoft" and implying that a down open would likely get bought. . . at least for a little bit. After all, MSFT didn't "pro formally" lower their full year by much. But as to a rally from here, the chip weakness concerns me even more than Microsoft. We'll have to see how they do in the a.m. They've got a long way to go to take out that SOXX low.

I, for one, am still confused. But if this Microsoft/IBM warning combo doesn't tank the market. . . if the horrible fundie news about chips and cap-ex doesn't. . . well, I start to see your "C" possibility much more strongly. Some small shock (or the inevitable MSFT filling the gap) takes us down to finish the "e" and then we go 6 weeks without any warnings and with building optimism about another rate cut and Q3 earnings marking a bottom (which they might, but will they mark a bottom in valuations? and will Q4 be an increase or a barely flat one, thus causing that guidance to be lowered anyway). It makes the mind reel. I agree with JRI that this SHOULD kill MSFT. . . but as davidd said, logic doesn't necessarily apply.

OK, I've rambled enough and this time I really am gone for the night. Sorry I keep doing these "ramble while putting thoughts together posts" but they help me, so you can all just skim them instead of reading everyone of my words (even though every word I write is GOLD!).

the freep
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