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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob
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To: stockmarket14 who wrote (40783)7/20/2001 2:55:30 AM
From: Drbob512  Read Replies (2) of 100058
 
stockmarket14: I appreciate your insights about sentiment-related issues. Not everyone agrees with you and I about the Nasdaq bear getting long in the tooth, but bears average about 15-17 mos, as I recall from stats.

In the past, sentiment analysis was strictly done on percentages and spreads, not on interpretations on why they are what they are, because there are always reasons which seem valid. Rationalizations come in many different ways, but the bottom line is when there are too many bullish advisors and too few bearish ones, it means that they are already invested (long) and that a sustainable rally is not likely.

I still believe we will have another downdraft to get the sentiment more in line with bottoms, though I don't expect the extreme levels of late March. And some generals and strong relative strength sectors can be another part of the puzzle for marking a good bottom, possibly a final bottom.

Thanks again for your analysis. You could be right on and I agree that we will not have a long-lasting drop from here.
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