Hi elmatador, maybe, possibly, perhaps, unless we have a problem with Argentina (USD 130 odd billion of loans), Brazil, Turkey, trade financing gone bad in Asia, line of revolving credit drawn down by Lucent, home mortgages lent for over-priced Silicon Valley homes, negative equity based home equity mortgages, and whatever traps awaiting us in the derivative world leveraging ever lower interest rate, Japanese Yen, or gold prices.
The problem is that the economy and its pool of funding has been poisoned, not by one common poison (i.e. inventory overage), but by an exotic mix of toxic ingredients. Antidote is not yet visible, and may in fact not be available, to wit Japan, and time may be the only cure.
When a system is thus weaken, then it is difficult to predict what will happen, and so probably best to simply not take a position and wait. I note the longs on SI are having a hopeful but empty time, and the shorts on SI are not doing much except getting disgusted with Al, and feeling generally despondent.
I just do not know. Not proud to admit it, but also not ashamed to announce it. Just neutral, and going with the flow.
Fight the ebb and tide, get rolled into the undertoll, weakened, sink, and stay sunk.
Chugs, Jay |
