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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo)
AABA 19.630.0%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (759)6/17/1997 11:26:00 PM
From: Charles Hughes   of 27307
 
"Yahoo! reported a 1Q97 operating loss of of $1.4 million versus our forecast loss of $2.6 million.
We have increased our 1997 and 1998 estimates accordingly. Our new 1997 EPS estimate is $0.05
on higher net revenues of $48.7 million, up from our previous EPS estimate of ($0.01) on net
revenues of $44.7 million. We now forecast Yahoo! to hit operating profitability in 4Q97 versus our
earlier forecast of 1Q98. Our 1998 EPS estimate is $0.47 on net revenues of $90.9 million."

So if in Jan 1999, their 1998 estimate came in correct, and meanwhile yhoo price stayed where it is around 35, you could own a company with a pe of 74 or so. Or if people decided they had done what they set out to do, and the PE went to normal levels of 20-30 for slightly passe tech stocks, you could own a $13 stock. Not to mention a 1997 prospective pe of 700, if they are lucky.

Even if these analysts estimates weren't so much shoe-scrapings.

But lets try to be more balanced. How many shares are outstanding? What kind of ad market does there need to be for yhoo to have the hundreds of millions revenue dollars it needs for the market cap to make sense. Right now they need more money in 1999 for that to happen than the entire present online advertising total, the way i see it. OK, say that grows by a factor of 10 in three years. Will YHOO grab 10% of that? Why?

I'm not trying to be too stubborn. But you know analyts estimates aren't worth much. I'd rather trust your own figuring.

Chaz
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