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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Andrew H who wrote (1249)6/17/1997 11:27:00 PM
From: Vector1   of 9719
 
Andy and the rest of the gang:
Beach is beautiful. I'm on Long Beach Island which is not far from Atlantic City. I have no intention of going there. I don't like to gamble when the odds are against me and they make it to hard to card count these days.

This IDPH vs Coulter Debate really has me jazzed. I think the IDPH thread is very good but they tend to believe their own BS. With some good analysis I think we can make some money on this.

Biowa, I do believe that conjugation of MA's with radiopharmas will be important. Clearly the primary efficacy will be in blood borne malignancies. Solid tumors are a problem for MA because of the eneven blood supply in solid tumors but how about as part of a standard treatment after solid tumor surgery to eliminate undetected malignent cells.

Comparing Coulter and IDPH here are some thoughts:
1. The Coulter product, Bexxar, has had superior results in clinicals. While both compounds have high response rates, Bexxar has shown complete remission in almost half the cases.
2.Bexxar is IMHO clinically superior because its a MA conjugated to a radiopharma. However as a result it has slightly greater side effects(although still much less than conventional chemo), requires the participation of a nuclear medicine specialist and may require a hospital stay to monitor the radiation dose. Will traditional oncologists want to involve another doctor.
3. Coulter has a market cap which is about $100 million. IDPH has a market cap many multiples of that although it has other promising products.
4. Coulters antibody is Murine or derived from mice. IDPH is chimerized which is human derived. My understanding is that as a result the IDPH product is more appropriate for a long term treatment. THus you could prob control the disease with long term treatment. With Bexxar you are going for a knockout punch.
5.IDPH is will prob get FDA approval in July. Coulter even with their expedited approach of going after patients who are chemo resistent may get approval by the end of 98.
6. IDPH has stong marketing partners but has given up a substantial portion of the drugs revs. Coulter does not yet even have a marketing partner and plans to develop their own sales force. While this has its risks, they keep all the profits.
Well folks what do you think. We have Coulter in the model because if their drug gets approval and becomes the treatment of choice we are talking about 20x money.
V1
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