phoenix, I'm not sure what he looks for in the charts
when velociraptor makes his short picks. I believe that he looks at daily charts more than hourly or 15-minute charts for theses picks. Frequently he gives his reasons, but as you know sometimes the charts say one thing but other things are moving the stock. I think you noted previously that his pick of ZRAN short for July 3 was wrong. I was unable to play anything that day, but if I had I would have gone long on that day (on whatever stock) because, as indexit noted, the day before a major holiday is more than likely an up day. Those kinds of phenomenon kind of throw a bucket of cold water on TA, just like news driven events do.
Raptor was similarly wrong about GNSS in the first of couple of weeks in May. Chartwise, it did look very overextended at that time as did many stocks after the strong April run. But GNSS kept moving right up anyway despite the chart, much to the consternation of myself, LD, FLACK and others who were awaiting a fall.
But back to ZRAN, I've noticed that in some ways the biotechs seem to follow a little bit of a different drummer than many other naz stocks like the chips, networkers, data storage and are therefore more unpredictable and harder to play. Many people are scratching their heads trying to figure out why the biotechs haven't had a harder time the last few months, and I can't offer any answers either. Basically, I think that most of that field is best left alone right now, even for long plays, as many stocks can tank quickly and unpredictably when clinical drug trials don't go as planned or the FDA delays implementation of their testing, or other reasons like that. It's just too much of minefield with biotechs right now. But now that I've said that, once we ever get out of our sustained downtrend I might consider MLNM for a mid-long term B&H. |
