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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: Sharck who started this subject	7/20/2001 12:16:03 PM
From: besttrader	Read Replies (1) of 37746

More interesting reading --> Market Commentary: Investor sentiment is fickle. There can be no doubt that bulls want to believe it is time to buy technology. Everyday they invent a new metric that suggests that time has come. Two months ago bullish Wall Street analysts talked about inventories declining. Last month they talked about the rate of order deceleration slowing (we swear, we couldn't make up this stuff if we tried). Now they are talking about order "push outs" coming to an end. Of course none of these new metrics address the real problem, end demand but that is stating the obvious. Meanwhile, as seasoned Wall Street semiconductor analysts do their very best impersonation of a junior Internet analyst (circa 1998), the flood of earnings warnings and gloomy second half forecasts continue. Last evening Microsoft (MSFT) took its turn with an earnings warning for the September quarter, stating that business conditions remain tough and growth will be sluggish for the PC market. Yes, this is the very same Microsoft that announced just a week ago that revenue would be higher than expected but it turns out that big revenue number is all about pre-orders for its much anticipated X-Box gaming console. So where does that leave bulls? We have been suggesting for some time that the only clear path is lower and once the earnings reporting period comes to an end and professionals retire to their summer homes it is going to get ugly as buyers vanish. Today we are looking to sell any early strength – although the Microsoft news may make that more wishful thinking than reality. Apart from homebuilders and depressed energy issues, most stock groups look tired. There is resistance at SPX 1,225 and NASADQ 2,100.

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