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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: andreas_wonisch who wrote (48494)7/20/2001 1:20:17 PM
From: pgerassiRead Replies (2) of 275872
 
Dear Andreas:

It is more likely that Intel lied that shipments equals sales. It claimed a higher market share at end of June. AMD stated that they sold half of their CPUs in June. For Intel to have higher share, they either 1) stuffed far more into the channel than AMD, 2) added CPUs that are not normally in the sales figures (XBOX), 3) separated shipping from equal to sales, or 4) lied about their share! I do not think Intel would out and out lie, since it would land them in very hot water with the regulators, so that options 4 and to a lesser extent 3 are not very probable. Option 2 causes trouble down the road because such a thing would effect apparent ASPs although the effect may not be obvious for a quarter or two. You are right that option 1 spells trouble for Intel especially in light of the planned cuts.

I think that i845 has for the most part missed the back to the school rush. Chipsets shipping next month will not have time to make it into finished PCs in time for late August / Early September rush (Unless in your area school doesn't start then, it does here for both college and high school). It takes about two weeks to build boards, two weeks to build PCs, and one to two weeks to arrive at stores. Thus, anything for Back to School needs to be shipped this week or next at the latest for the major OEMs. DIY shops could shrink this by two weeks.

Now nForce is different as it will be on motherboards sometime next month (if it stays on schedule). That allows it to reach production in three weeks and still make it into BTS. Similarly, end of October is the point for Christmas (since shipping to destination is needed or if you prefer, time to get it wrapped for presents and well hidden). OEMs need CPUs by November and DIYs by December. Chipsets need four weeks before that for inventory to build up. NForce and i845 will make it for Christmas.

Pete
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