Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who wrote (4382)	7/20/2001 1:41:29 PM
From: Brad Davies	Read Replies (1) of 6873

I am with you short on NLI. The run up has me a little concerned, though. Your math indicates clearly that they do not have the cash flow to meet their ongoing debt service. I did the same math and came to the same conclusions. The risk element, though, is in their ability to borrow more to continue. It seems to me that many cable/utility type companies have an ability to borrow no matter how bad the balance sheet seems, based on a value that is ascribed to each subscriber in the market. The question, then, is how much is NLI worth on a per sub basis. I am also unclear on how much of their business is cable vs. telecom or internet. Have you taken the time to dissect their balance sheet. I have not, but will try to do so. I think, (hope) that your analysis is correct, in which event, we should probably load up further on the short side. Brad

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