V1, envy you the beach. Especially landlocked in Colorado, but there are some lovely mountain lakes here full of trout. And today was beautiful.
I really should read the CLTR 10K. Sounds like a few analysts are behind it, which always helps. I am out of bullets, but it is on my watch list for the furtue. Definitely promising. For the purposes of analysis and debate, I will be a bit of a devil's advocate. My concerns are:
1. what else are they working on after Bexxar? I'd feel a lot better if I knew they had a good pipeline, even if in preclinicals.
2. would the fact that it is a mouse product (all milking jokes aside (:>)) tend to limit sales? Are you quite certain it is not good for long term use? Or for relapses. That's important. Lots of money to be made there.
3. Seems like a bargain now at a 20% discount from MP purchase. MP is not the Mouse Portfolio.
4.There was a comment on the IDEC thread which I referenced, which suggested that of the 3 treatments (Bexxar, IDEC's drug, and IDEC's drug + CHOP chemotherapy), the treatment of choice would be the third. I would tend to agree with that, given the stats available to us now.
5.That would lead me to wonder if CLTR's drug could also be used with CHOP or some other effective chemo. If so that would be a big plus. Might myelosuppression be a problem because of Bexxar's radiation?
6. It would be helpful to have some info from whatever analyst reports are out there if anyone has access.
7. Marketing is important. I would much prefer the product of my company to be marketed by a big pharm than a small independent company sales force, even if they had to pay some royalties out once P3 was finished. IDEC will have a lead of about 18 months over CLTR. Marketing will be EXTREMELY important, and I would like to see a marketing partner like J&J, etc.
8. A hospital stay will be a negative regarding insurance reimbursement. They will prefer to avoid hospital costs, other things being relatively equal. Are we sure hospitalization is required? Quad is a radiopharm but outpatient.
8, Someone on the IDEC thread said IDEC had another NHL drug in P2 that they thought would be even better than Bexxar. I think it was something like Y28. Was in the post prior to the one I referenced. I could find nothing on that, but would want to know more before I bought CLTR.
That's enough for now. The IDEC numbers I saw were big, something like 1.2b market opportunity. Bexxar would only need a relatively small % of that to do very well. But I would like some good answers to the above questions before throwing in my money. |
