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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Paul Shread who wrote (12336)7/20/2001 6:30:39 PM
From: isopatch  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
Paul. Yes, they are. That's one reason

the broad market needs to have another leg down and that will only happen when so far patient LT investors begin loose patience. Still too many Bulls out there content to sit on even hefty paper losses. And there're a couple of very good reason they've so far been willing to do so.

1. Only a small fraction of active investors today have ever been through a standard issue, classic Bear Market. 1991 was a relatively mild one. And 1987 was too short in duration.

2. During the past 8 years, the majority Bulls have been strongly conditioned to ride out corrections. So, IMO it'll take months more of red ink dominating monthly statements before the so far patient and hopeful throw in the towel and we finally get that last capitulation leg down.

Therefore, my take is that for this particular Bear Market, it's duration will actually be more important that it's overall percentage decline in creating that final washout declining phase.

Not even sure yet whether or not the final low will occur in the last quarter of this year. Just have to wait and see how the TA, FA and sentiment backdrop shapes up when we get there.

Cheers,

Isopatch
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