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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (44722)7/20/2001 6:41:30 PM
From: Larry Grzemkowski  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Hi Mike

Frankly, I'm looking for strong support from the people who expressed concern about not having discussed valuation enough. I hope they will pipe in about the comment I'm making about Siebel. (They might have already done that. I haven't read most of the recent posts.)

I think I hear you calling my name.

Well here is my take on SEBL it's worth about $23 to $28 depending on whose DCF model you believe. Both models use 28% growth. There is even a model showing $110 but they are using 42% growth and if you plug 28% growth into this model it gives you $38. So who is right? It is the same old problem it all depends upon the assumptions you make same as PE and PEG and YPEG. I will admit I have a difficult time getting a handle on DCF so I let someone else do it and I know this can be fatal. I would buy SEBL again in the 20's. I bought SEBL the last time it hit the low 30's and sold in the high 40's because of valuation. I can not back this up with my own analysis but there are three different sites that will give you a DCF analysis. What I do is compare the three and look for why there may be a difference between the models. And one must realize these models are working with last earnings release. data. So when the Aug. data comes out there will be new numbers.

Larry G
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