We seem to disagree. I am of the opinion that this week's holding in the 2000-2078 area was simply a manipulation to satisfy the naked writers of options (the "big boys"). Many stocks, however have broken important patterns here (the quintet, all of them), MSFT , a bunch of semi-equip (some breaching 12 month lows recently) and many others. I think that there is excess bullishness. Les quoted on another thread that AAII is recording only 15% advisors bearish, now, I do not remember ever such a low number and this series is much older than the Rydex index being hailed as a strong bullish sentiment indicator. Add this to many other palling turnips such as poor breadth, paucity of expansion of new highs (despite getting a number of time close to that 2100 level). We have a narrowing trading range which I fear will resolve on the downside. Many bulls believe it will resolve up. Furthermore, I have a major cycle low either on August 3rd that could develop into a black Monday on August 6th. From here to there, do not see anything to get this market's hope higher.
My stand is in congruence with my general stance that since late April, we have been in a massive distribution range, and that is quite a long period, if it resolves down, it will be a massive decline, if it resolves up, (namely, I am wrong and that period was a massive accumulation period), it will also be massive. I believe strongly that it will resolve down, and thus my heavy cash (74%) stance going into this weekend.
Mind you, some of those core stocks keep making new highs (today it was AGM and SFD)
Zeev |
