George. You're onto something important methinks
There are really 2 kinds of forecasts.
Those that are designed as a working hypothesis to help us trade important rallies. This is the kind of work you and I and most of the folks here work on to develop.
The other kind of forecast is predicting for its own sake. Prediction for a few people can become an end in itself when being right is more important to them than making money. Hate to put it that way. But sometimes that's what I see occasionally from other contributors.
The "working hypothesis" that you and I deal in promotes flexibility. It is not set in stone, but relies on internal market action, like response to news, price volume patterns etc to complete the picture.
And if the market makes an important tradable Intermediate Term bottom at 80, it doesn't really matter if it's THE bottom IMHO. We're going to make the most of any significant rally that develops from the bottom pattern the market itself if telling us is occuring. In other words the market comes first. The forecast is only one step towards trying to get in tune with the markets larger patterns.
A bottom comes when it comes. The market doesn't care what we think. But we sure as shootin' better care what it DOES.<g> If we here to make money.
The kind of OSX targets we use as working hypothesis' are simply one tool to establish a likely outcome, to support our investment and trading decisions. Not to miss big money making opportunities because of the inflexibility that grows out of an excessive desire to be proven presicent.
Like you, I take what the market gives me and don't try to impose my views on it. That's for people who just predict and don't trade major multi-week or multi-month rallies.
Appreciate your input here, George. We have some overlap in the tools we use. But just as important on this thread is that you, my friend Roebear, and Slider especially, focus on specific kinds of evidence and analysis tools that are different, but highly complimentary to the ones I'm skilled in.
So when we put the pieces together, on and off board, "the whole is more than the sum of the parts".
It really is a micro version of what I saw on W.S., and in the years since, in the more successful market analysis and strategy groups and particularly from the better independent shops in the investment management biz.
And best of all, it's fun. I really enjoy it.
This has really become an outstanding thread.
Best,
Iso |
