Few weekend thoughts… before the party starts.. ;-)
I read that the put/call ratio is high. The DOW is near its 200 day MA, so, if it stays above it, many would see it as a bullish sign.
The major indices reached a 62% retracement level (or close) of their respective spring rallies.
Traders seem seriously bearish, some feeling ‘comfortable’ holding their puts, but the sentiment is mixed, the AAII numbers showing bullishness. Who is right?
Ameritraders are buying, but IMO, you have to be careful interpreting that. I remember reading on April 4th, that there was no chance for a bottom because Ameritraders were revealing too much bullishness.
EW counts are many, all, basically, corrective, and giving off many ‘clues’, but not enough confidence.
From a charting point of view, the support for QQQ’s at 41 held so far. Either the recent highs, or the recent low’s (importantly, from July 11), will soon be broken. The SOX is winding up into a tightening symmetric triangle.
IMO, if one were to try to design a grueling, frustrating wave 2, the current situation would be a fine example, and this is the main reason I find myself thinking that the resolution will more likely occur to the upside, with or without a preceding rinse. Fundamental and international situations are far from positive, but the sellers are “on strike”. The level of frustration with the markets is high. I hear people say that they are ready to ‘walk away’ from this ‘craziness’ altogether; there is a feeling of a threatening impending doom, of a possible crash – and all this with the background of a classical degree of retracement of a previous impulsive rally!
Interesting times… are we having fun yet? |
