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Strategies & Market Trends : MP - Market Pulse

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To: HairBall who started this subject	7/21/2001 10:08:12 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) of 1328

Percent Performance Charts... For those of you expecting a big down (crash) in the near future, I suggest you look at the following charts. My WOW Percent Performance Charts (COMPX, NYA, SPX, RUT) Daily Chart Closing price percent comparison from 10/11/90 Click on Chart 4 This chart reveals the price action from the acceleration off the 90 lows. While is is possible the COMPX may see a test of 4/4 low and even a test of the 98 lows, see the following chart for additional clarity. Closing price percent comparison from 7/20/98 Click on Chart 5 As this chart denotes the July 98 highs have exhibited considerable influence for several years and have proven to be important support during this recent consolidation. If this price action area continues to hold the markets could rally from current levels. If the support exhibited fails, the markets will likely test the April low and less likely test the Oct 98 low. An important area to keep an eye on. Note: I created the 7/20/98 closing price percent comparison chart in February of this year (2001). I anticipated the 7/98 highs to exhibit considerable influence on the Naz Comp correction as it has exhibited considerable influence on the NYSE Comp during its extended multiple year sideways trading action. If you think the current consolidation period has been a period of distribution or even accumulation for the COMPX, I suggest you look more closely at the volume during this period. I believe significant accumulation has already taken place during the drop into January 2001 and during the drop into April 2001. If we see one more drop IMO it will likely be a final accumulation before a significant move higher. Those of you following my posts and web updates know I have been anticipating one more decline to test the 4/9-10 gap-up and extend the retrace of the Naz Comp's move up from 4/4 to 5/22. However, I am now less confident in that scenario and suspect the 7/11 low "may" hold as the low for the retrace. If breached I expect the support line for the wedge to hold providing a slightly extended retrace to the 61.8% area (1890). Of course a break below (not just a breach) of the support line for the current in play falling wedge of the COMPX (originating from the 5/22 high) would likely portend a test of the April 9-10 gap-up providing that additional panic accumulation drop. While I am not expecting to see new highs this year for the Naz Comp, I believe it likely we will see new highs in the NYSE Comp later this year or early 2002. How this wedge plays out is going to be important. Of course I could be wrong and I would not be surprised at a head fake or two before the ultimate direction out of the wedge is revealed. So keep an eye on both of the constraining trend lines for the in play COMPX falling wedge and always THINK LIKE A CRIMINAL...<g> My WOW Percent Performance Charts can be viewed at the link below. Click on Charts 4 and 5. lgscharts.homestead.com Good trading and the best of good buys... Regards, LG Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on any one person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions.

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