George. Just got back and read your post.
Actually, IF this is THE low? Sure, there's likely to be several tests after brief phases of rally. So, we're on the same page as far as that goes.
But till proven otherwise, my read is this isn't the final bottom. OSX 68-72 looks like more likely for that, eventually. But per my post last week, predicting any number long in advance isn't that important. What matters is to recognize the bottom AND buying when we get there. That means focusing on the market, not our own assumptions about the market.
IMHO, we're currently building the kind of less extensive bottom in both time and price that typically provides the base for a Bear Market rally.
Let's start with an analogy to the general markets good rally from early April into the Dow top in the 11,000s.
IMHO that was clearly a Bear Market rally. However, well worth playing. The Dow ran from 9,100 to roughly 11,400.
Hey thread! That's a 25% move!! And the stronger sectors, like the golds<g> did much better than that.
There are folks with day jobs who sat on their hands all the way through that nice profit opportunity. But THIS is my day job - and has been since 1986. Sooooo? YES! I'll take that kind of gift from Ma Market any time!
Anyhow...IF IF IF (that's the key before Iso starts pulling the buy trigger as I said to Bobby Beara) we do get a successful test of last weeks low to CONFIRM a bottom???? IMO, the OSX will likely rally at least into early/mid August. And make those who pick the right stocks a VERY nice buck.
The OSX is a much more volatile animal than the Dowager Dow. So minimum expectation, for me, would be OSX 107 with 115-120 a good possibility.
JMVVHO
Isopatch |
