MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: mishedlo who wrote (80673)	7/21/2001 7:53:17 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (4) of 99985

I'm going to take a quick stab at that. No one who has been in the market for a long time has not been exasperated by the inability to predict the short and intermediate direction of the market on any consistent basis. NO one. Markets are comprised of buyers and sellers inflicted with measured doses of greed and fear. Successful traders become so, much more because they have developed good trading habits than because they knew where the market was heading. I don't know where you were in August through October of 1987 but few traders of that era can forget the monumental impact that those couple of months had on people's portfolio. A chart during that period looked like an avalanche being swallowed whole by a vat of quicksand. Few wanted to listen to the pundits who suggested that the markets would eventually rebound and go on to bigger and better things. It took four years before no load mutual funds became net buyers vice net redeemers. Of course many things are different now then they were back then. Interest rates were high (10%), gold prices were spiking and pundits and gurus were heralding the onset of the newest Great Depression. The reason I mention that time frame is because while in the middle of that it was so difficult for someone to detach him or herself and gain perspective of the far larger picture. Few had the clarity to posture themselves appropriately both for the decline and the ensuing rise. Yet all of us were at some point just as convinced as you seem to be that the scenario would play out a certain way. Funny thing is, as monumental as that crash was, it creates little more than a blip on the charts of today. Perhaps you will have significant success trading this market. I contend that if that is the case it will be because you have honed your trading skills and not because you knew precisely where the market was going. Of this I am certain, we will all be able to look back at the market at some point in the future and say, "boy if only I had...."

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next