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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 677.48

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Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: ig who wrote (80705)	7/22/2001 4:41:05 AM
From: exeric2	Read Replies (3) of 99985

IG,you couldn't be more right -- the more a rule is respected regarding a chart pattern (or any other thing in the market)the less predictive power there is. That is the reason no one trading methodology works all the time. If you do happen to find a relatively simple thing that is consistently profitable you can be sure it won't stay that way for long. That's why traders need to constantly be aware of the trading environment. The best one can hope for is to have a large bag of TA tricks in which one selects the few that seem to consistantly be working right now. Right now there is almost no TA tricks that are working as far as predicting the general market direction, especially in the Nasdaq. I'm talking mostly the last week. Cycles, DMA, Trendiness are all completely stagnant and the markets are choppy. Day after day of gaps that are later reversed and filled. If things continue as they are traders will be tearing their hair out (if they still have any). The most that can be said of this period is that hopefully it teaches the smarter among us when NOT to trade! A lot of people are trying to predict what is going to happen from here on the Nasdaq but as far as I'm concerned there has never been a time when it has been more ambiguous. I will say this though: the longer this choppy trendless period persists the more it predicts a very large move coming. In some ways it is like a period of small precurser earthquakes that finally culminates in "The Big One". Now which direction "The Big One" will move is more than I can say. That's what makes the market fun. It always leaves out some vital bit of information. Regards, Exeric

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