You are raising an interesting question, what happens when so many people are watching the same chart formation… I suspect that in a way this moment IS unprecedented. Now, pretty far into a bear market, people may feel that a lot of fundamentals were ‘discredited’, and pay more attention to technicals… The information is available more than ever in the past. Does it mean that chart formations may start playing out differently than in the past? I have no answer to your question (maybe someone else does), but I’ll be watching... ;-)
As far as the ‘outside factors’ are concerned, you are right, the market will react to them depending on “what mood” it is in… ;-). Here, the EW method should continue to be of help.
In the end, there still are buyers and sellers, and the pattern will have to resolve itself one way or the other. Trendlines still work ;-). IMO, a break of support at 41 and particularly 40 on the Q’s will mean that at least another southbound swing is in the cards; a break of the upper trendline, or even more so, taking out a recent high would begin to point things north!
Great day today in New York. Time to visit some friends for a barby and a dip in the pool. |
