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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: t2 who wrote (80723)	7/22/2001 7:12:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Why Naz did not break out to higher levels is what got me re-evaluating my position as most experts believe that buying 6 to 9 months ahead of an economic recovery is the ideal time. Question is: why are the big funds (or retail tech investors)not buying now? That has been a mystery to me and there are many possible answers....but that is basically the reason for my caution of late and tendency to short a little more in my daytrading. Monday is going to be very interesting. The talk out of OPEC is not a positive for the markets (except energy). Naz not rallying on huge drops in energy prices recently was also puzzling. NV - Is it possible that J6P is getting damned tired of the lies by wall street? Getting them to buy semi-equips in the high 50's and MU in the high 40's while they unloaded could have really been the last straw. What happens if J6P is now sceptical of anything the analysts say? Clearly there were lies on second half recovery. Mortgage refinancing is done and over so where is that additional money from J6P to come from anyway? Look at the sector rotation with J6P getting in at the very end each time. Perhaps he is tired of chasing a ghost. On a fundamental basis (and I still have not heard from BB), what are tech values and why? I see very few if any. Are PCs and fiber really growth anymore? If not what sort of rational PE should there be? Is J6P going to have a job anymore. Is housing about to slow? Hell what as me thouroughly perplexed is how this has held together for as long as it has. But the longer and more intense the distribution process the lower we go. If we do manage to rise 150-200 points from here I think we overshoot the bottom retest by at least that amount. I will laugh my ass off if greenspan does a surprise rate cut and the market reacts by sinking (which it should IMHO) cause Greenspan is pushing on a string. M

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