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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 335.99-1.1%Dec 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (1309)7/22/2001 8:06:08 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (1) of 10065
 
Pete: I have maintained for months that sentiment is the most important indicator in this environment. Inflation is really a non issue. Valuation is high but liquidity is ample so you are left with sentiment as the determining factor and this blows with the wind. Your sentiment numbers are troubling. Couple this reading with the low AAII bear reading (15%) and you have double trouble. Add the VIX into the mix and any bull run is short on fuel. I do not see the ten day P/C as being anything at slightly above mid range. Declines have occurred at these levels. So if anything, any rally will run out of gas. I expect the downside now to have more fuel here seasonally although downside has a slowing mechanism in the form of the record number of shorts looking to cover to turn a buck.
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