Solid,
JMPO, but I don't think this is that good a time to switch into the fuelcell sector, unless you playing extremely long term. Even then, you might want to consider the play out of the irrational exhuberance in the other sectors of the market and then contrast those sectors to fuel cells.
Consider the networking market. Consider the drops of players like Lucent, Nortel or even Cisco. IMO, BLDP will be trading at the $5 range for a while and maybe for a long while before it takes off. I have no idea of when BLDP is going to get to $5 range (or even if it isn't going to be the $.75 range), but I am confident that kind of bottoming has to happen to expel the IR...
I don't post a lot on BLDP, or fuel cells in general, but if you do check my last call on BLDP, back on Feb22nd you'll see that a pretty decent call. IMO, BLDP is going to break the previous bottom easily and keep falling. My estimate is based on IR and contrasting BLDP stock price performance to say Nortel's performance. Remember that when NT dropped to $80, $60, $40, $20, $10 and now $7.54, that it looked pretty good.
And NT is a real company selling real products. BLDP IMO is still a concept company. Maybe appropriate for a small percentage of your highest risk portofilo $$s. If you really love to gamble go to Vegas. You get more bang for you buck there. But then again, investing in BLDP may give you an excellent jot too in say the next 6 months to a year. Again the time frame is just a guess. The SP drop is pretty much a sure thing...
IR is over. Accept it. Invest in value. And maybe, in the next XX years, IR will once again return, carry up with it the BLDPs of the world.
But you know best....
kgb |
