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Strategies & Market Trends : Automatic

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To: ken-l who wrote (321)	7/22/2001 10:29:48 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 470

Hi Auto, OK it's my turn to talk in Auto tongues.gggg First -off I use TC 2000 so some of their proprietory terms may not make sense-but it really is semantics: Regarding your morph of the descending wedge - good observation shows up on the 15 chart nicely.TC 2000 charts regression lines and the slope from the morph to the close is up - suggests your up call is right on.Also descending wedge morphed into uptrend just as macd turned positive - trend continuation should go ok until positive macd begins trend down to neutral line(15 min). On 15 minute time frame I see 40EMA @ 2040ish and 40sma @ 2033.You point out out 60 minute stochastic still is below neutral so 15 minute can still spike up to continue the trend for a while yet. One of the best strengths I observe is what TC2000 calls moneystream - it is their most responsive indicator to a supply/demand imbalance on a short term basis.It has become positive relative to price(above it)for the last four days.This is not a holy grail but it is a plus.Last but not least - my favorite sentiment indicator - the put call ratio has once again become moderately high showing a sense of fear in the market.It is one of the best contrary indicators I've ever seen.The masses(retail) are always wrong.Fear in the market while money has been buying on the dips is a bullish sign.One of the best example of this is what looked like institutional buyin of Nvls when it gapped down last weekafter Amats conference at Semicon.Future vision off and it gapped down to it's 200 dma and got support big time on volume.Bullish but below the horizon - stealth money at work.JMHO Moneystream growing as the retail world bets on it going south is a bullish set-up.I doubt it is strong enough to start a reversal up.Rather it probably is a set up for a bull trap just before a final awesome shakeout that looks like it is going to bust 1619 but only snags 1890ish. Afterall a final shakeout has to get a vix spike popping into the 50's anyhow. These are the ramblings of a long positional trader who likes to prepare for the worst - and I too am often wrong.gg Bob On the other hand a coordinated G8 lowering of rates after their now copleted meetig could trap a lot of bears and get us going.I perceive that to be one of their desires.

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