For the S&P long-term CI (not to be confused with the shorter-term CI numbers I've been posting regularly), the value was 13.3 on April 3 and 74.9 on Jan 31. Shorter-term values were 22.3 on April 3 and 92.7 on Jan. 31.
As for the Naz CI, the longer-term value was 46.3 on April 3 and 64.58 on Jan. 31. Shorter-term values were 22.9 and 84.1, respectively.
Were the June 29-July 2 readings your highest since last summer?
The longer-term S&P CI has been high through much of May and June. For example, it was at 98 on 6/8 and 95 on 5/24. It's been pretty high since May, never falling below 69. Back in March and April of this year, it was very low at some points. Looking back for high points, you have to go back to August and September 2000 for readings in the 90s. During June through Sept. 2000, it was usually pretty high.
With the Naz longer-term CI, it's also been high in May and June, hitting 99 May 18, for example. You have to go back to April 2001 for low numbers, and even then, they don't go lower than 30. In January 2001, the values go into the teens at one point. Then you have to go back to Sept. for high values, when it reached 100. Again, it was constantly high during June through Sept. 2000.
The longer-term Naz CI is now at 74, and it's trending down from the high reached at the end of June. So it suggests to me that things were far too complacent then, and that the market is in a downtrend longer term right now.
That doesn't mean that there aren't uptrends in shorter time frames. There have been several, and the shorter-term CI suggests that we could have a short uptrend now, if earnings don't weigh too heavily on things. The reason is that complacency fell too low in the short term. There was too much fear right before the last batch of earnings last week.
Overall, it would appear that the outlook is somewhat bearish for the longer term, because complacency is still high (in the 70s) and moving down.
Sentiment, of course, can change dramatically at any time.
As Groucho said, "Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?" |
