<<[*] a steal from the run-down russian joke: "Communism has always been a step ahead of capitalism, and, at this very moment, the capitalism is just a step away from the precipice";\.>>
Good one.
On the article, I wrote to the author and got back a response that does not fit my scheme/graph and so I am choosing to ignore it for 6 months. I appreciate the fact that he took time to respond to a total stranger. Now, on the response, either he is attributing too much to capital flow/exchange rate or not attributing enough to valuation, or I had not attributed enough to capital flow and too much to valuation. Or simply the e-mail is not a good vehicle to update a 13 page article. Anyway, I am not budging from my crawl space, and will keep scoping for a bit; just in case Japan figures out a plan for Pearl Harbour II.
Here was his response ...
QUOTE
... I am thinking to update it some time, but basically the same argument still apply today and probably will apply for next five to ten years. In order to predict the up and downs of US and Japanese economy, just take the movement of Dollar-Yen relation; this relation preceeds the real economies of both countries about a year or more. The prediction of 2000 economic slow down in US is based on the sharp drop of dollar at the summer of 1998. Another sharp drop of dollar in the summer of 1999 further sealed the fate of this slow down and the bust of ".COM" . The flat behavior of dollar, trading in the range of 105 to 110 Yens per dollar, for a long time since the summer of 1999 assures a prolonged flat bottom crawling of US economy since the bust of high tech stocks. However, the recovery of dollar since Nov. 2000 indicates that US economy will start to move up from the beginning of 2002. Japanese economy will, in the contrast, start to enter another recession in 2002 due to the sizable drop of the value of Yen from Nov. 2000. Europe does not matter very much since the capital accumulated in the former West Germany is mainly used up by former Eastern Europe countries and Russia, so will not help US very much.
UNQUOTE
Chugs, Jay |
