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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 226.72

-1.5%

2:44 PM EST

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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (128875)	7/23/2001 6:03:15 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Mark: Lets try a scenario. (1) Foreigners run low on fresh cash to lend us and so stop shipping us their "savings" due to a global economic slowdown. (2) Sensing the slowing of these inflows, currency traders start to short the dollar, triggering an initial slide. (3) Seeing the slide, foreigners move to protect themselves from the impact of the falling dollar by actively selling their positions in our stocks and bonds. (4) Seeing the downside momentum building, currency traders step up their selling and short-selling. (5) The selling momentum continues to build and drives the dollar down in value by 20% or more, resulting in mounting losses and increased investment risk that foreigners view as unacceptable. (6) The sale of US financial assets intensifies further and contributes to the intensity of the global slowdown, reinforcing the cycle. (7) The yield curve gets very steep and short term rates do not trigger an economic recovery. (8) Our stock markets make new lows and continue to trend downwards for another year or two -- losing another 30% to 50% in price from here -- with a target of 1000 on the Naz and 7000 on the Dow.

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