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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 298.01

-0.5%

Dec 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (841)	7/23/2001 7:15:50 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 95580

RE: "Still the BtB was at the high end of expectations signaling a turnaround." No, the BtB doesn't signal anything, this time. It is a ratio of two falling numbers with revenues falling at a faster rate than bookings. This is not surprising because bookings have fallen ~77% off their high and the rate is due to slow and, as backlog is used up, revenues fall to the level of the bookings. The question is how long will bookings stay at the $700M level? AMAT threatened that it might fall to lower levels if technology purchases start to get pushed out. The current consensus is that the level might stick around until H2 2002 or Q1 2003. A dismal thought.

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