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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 314.52-0.6%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (841)7/23/2001 8:33:57 PM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (2) of 95573
 
<<Still the BtB was at the high end of expectations signaling a turnaround >>

Whether this Btb signals a turnaround is best left to Father Time. The fact is the rate of declining bookings has slowed a lot and that is good. In fact, the level of bookings over the past 3 months has remained virtually unchanged ($700-720 mil) and such stabilization is a good sign as well (screams of 'More declines in equipment sales!!!!' notwithstanding). In other words, your initial enthusiasm was correct: bookings, to repeat, have NOT fallen over the last 3 months - the difference between April, May, and June are firmly within the noise of the data (as May's bookings revision from $704 mil to $714 mil clearly indicates).

So once again we need to be reminded that we're in a period that is a mirror image of last year: I distinctly recall contributors commenting following the first couple of drops in the Btb (last year) that this was simply the result of shipments catching up with bookings. We were told not to worry because the consensus was that the industry would be strong through ~2003.

Now we're told that the rise in the Btb over the past 2 months is simply the result of shipments 'catching-down' to the billings. We are told to continue to worry because the consensus is that the industry will not be strong again until ~2003.

Perhaps, like the spring of 2000 (and every cycle peak or trough before it), this time really, really, REALLY will be different.
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