Barton Biggs: US Dollar Weakness to Reset Investment Equation
Jul 24, 2001 - 11:46:35 HKT
Quamnet News Service
Barton Biggs, global strategist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said investors should watch out for the strength of the US dollar, as a declining dollar would change the whole investment equation, with new winners and losers.
"The dollar weakness in the last few days could be an important straw in the wind," said Biggs in a note to clients today. "The trade-weighted dollar is up 10 percent year to date, which is deflationary, destructive for US manufacturing, and has depressed commodity prices. The only plausible explanation is that the dollar has become the world's safe-haven currency, since all the other fundamentals argue for a falling, not a rising, dollar. The US economy is likely going to remain sick, unemployment will keep rising, and the consumer will be at risk unless the dollar reverses."
Biggs said he is still skeptical that an economic recovery is just around the corner and that the bottom has been made. |
