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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.92

-1.1%

Dec 30 3:59 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (49649)	7/24/2001 1:59:36 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) of 70976

I noticed the same plateau. What is interesting is the similar timing--bookings peaking in October 1997, plateauing in March-May in 1997-98 just as they peaked in October 2000 and plateaued in April-June. Of course the rise and fall in bookings have been more dramatic with this cycle than the previous one, which makes the present plateau all the more curious. The fact that bookings plateaued in the spring of both downturns may be a coincidence or may represent how the industry's seasonal pattern of a summer slowdown might prolong the downturn. In other words, business tries to stabilize in the spring (hence the plateau) but any attempt at a rebound in the traditionally slow summertime months ends up failing. There is no question that the book to bill has a tendency to bottom around September of every year and recovers into fall. With this downturn it may be too much to ask for a significant upturn until atleast this fall when hopefully the combination of holidays/back-to-school-spending and less vacations can support increased investment in semis.

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