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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 277.90-0.3%3:09 PM EST
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To: Trey McAtee who wrote ()7/5/1996 4:21:00 PM
From: Bill Fischofer   of 213176
 
If Apple goes under, thank Netscape

The force which is pushing Apple to the brink of extinction is the net. Thanks to Netscape competition, Microsoft has turned on the afterburners and is pushing the Wintel envelope to a degree never before imagined. The pace of change has dramatically accelerated in the past six months and shows no signs of slowing. All this at a time Apple is struggling to adjust its product mix. The intensity of competition between Netscape and Microsoft is simply trampling bystander systems like OS/2 and MacOS at this point. In essense, if you aren't already in the race you aren't going to get an entry at this point.

If Microsoft beats Netscape, Wintel will reign so Apple loses. If Netscape beats Microsoft, it will mean Java and network-centric applications will rule, so again Apple loses. Apple supporters have to ask themselves under what scenario will the advantages of Mac-only applications endure? If "none" then what is the basis for Apple's competitive position? They can't win on price thanks to Wintel's unbeatable economies of scale. Ease of use is debatable in the net-centric world of the future. What is Apple's answer to Java or to Microsoft's ActiveX? More importantly, when will this answer appear? Six months is now a very long time to be marching in place. If either Microsoft or Netscape took a six-month vacation they'd be dead and they both know it, so don't expect any lulls in the competition anytime soon.

Will today's announcement of Ellen Hancock joining the Apple team save the day? Don't ask any IBMers that question.
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