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Biotech / Medical : Biotech - Technical Analysis
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To: Jibacoa who wrote (80)7/24/2001 12:01:19 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL   of 544
 
Hi Bernard,

You are prolific - as are my other TA friends. <g>

It is my view that stocks spend much of the time (say 75%) trading between 1/2 to 2 times their fair value. I believe that FV can be estimated with sufficient certainty, in many cases (not all) to make it useful. When you can buy a stock at half of its value - you can reasonably expect above market average returns. That will not prevent the stock from dropping below .5X as SEPR did. But it will make the buys all the sweeter for those who buy the low ranges. (TA, especially the crossover style will never buy the lows or sell the highs.)

SEPR went significantly below 1/2 FV. It has only now popped up to about 1/2 FV. Thus, I see above market average returns from holding it. I cannot tell when those returns may be realized but if I am correct they will come absent some intervening problem. I think SEPR now has a FV of about 80. So I view it as a buy.

ij
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