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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.40

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Dec 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Freep who wrote (80816)	7/24/2001 1:44:35 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Last night you said "Sold most of my Nasdaq puts/covered shorts near the end of the day ...a bit too early ...and went long the group ahead of Greenspan." Today you said "Was enough for me to cover all shorts this morning and go long again..." Freep, Sorry, I was not clear. I meant that I still had some shorts left as of the close yesterday and decided to cover these as well this morning and use the proceeds to go longer. I decided to make a few speculative bets late this morning with some cheap September and even a few August calls as well. Now "hoping" for the best on these trades--not committing too much cash to these ones. I hate using the "hope" word but there seems to be enough bearishness out there....similiar to what we saw in March. I consider these cheap bets I made today as high risk but sometimes you just have to go with your gut feeling. Feels too much like late March to me and that was the reason I decided to take a plunge. Having said that, I still ended up buying more September calls than August, which is basically a lack of conviction on my part. That is also why I am not willing to ride down my long positions if the market gets much worse...some stops in place. So please. . .let me know when you go long. Seriously, I hope you knock 'em out of the park on the long side, whether it's just a bounce or a longer rally. Don't tell me you are using me as a contrarian indicator ...although I have been a good one in the last couple of months.<g> I am not nearly as bullish as I was at the April low because I don't expect the rebound to be that great this time in percentage terms. However, you never know because so many NOW expect a retest of the lows on the Nasdaq. A little bit of positive news may trigger a rally. The data I am picking up on short interest; bearish investor sentiment; mutual fund cash levels indicator etc... is a good enough case to place a few bets (calls)using a small amount of capital...sooner or later, we will get an April type of bounce. The bearishness is certainly at high levels. JMHO. BTW--what do you think of the Nasdaq at this point? edit: I do have some cheap cheap August puts but the market has to drop a lot for them to work out..a small position in dollar terms and I don't usually factor them into my positions---call it a cheap insurance policy.

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