Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (92727)	7/24/2001 7:28:41 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Just as Dow 11,000 would have seemed wildly inconceivable in 1994, Dow 5,000 seems inconceivable now. In part, I learned my lesson from participating in the Lucent thread when Lucent was above 100 (as I recall). The proponents of the stock were so enthusiastic and abusive of contrary views that I was persuaded to sell my LEAP puts after a modest drop. Historical events make a Dow of 4,000 not inconceivable. But in my cowardly fashion I would probably start selling my Dow LEAPputs as it dropped below 9,000--at least enough to cover my costs. BTW, those puts (strike price 14,000 on the Dow) for the years 2002 and 2003 are selling at a discount --a large discount-- to actual value, because they are European style and cannot be exercised until expiration. But as expiration approaches they will take on the characteristics of American-style (exercisable any time) puts. I consider these LEAPS the greatest fixed-roulette-wheel discovery of my entire life. But who knows what strange things may intercept my analysis?

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