Regarding your "bounce" question...
1. What's your time frame ?
2. Besides hoping for a talking head to tell that the sector has hit bottom, what info/data/etc. are you crunching to possibly determine a bottom and your risk/reward from that bottom ? This is where you need to factor time into the equation from question # 1.
3. LU is a mess and may take longer than you think for it to bounce 30 to 50%. With all that we know and all that you hopefully have already dissected, what makes LU attractive besides the fact that it's currently a total disaster.
Amazing how the most widely held company in the 90's has gone so wrong in such a short time. Think about all the things that have to happen for LU to be the darling again, or even just cash flow positive. Yea. Yea. Yea. The CEO said this and that this morning on CNBC, but is it the right plan ? Are they doing all they can, as fast as they possibly can ? Time will tell.
After that, how long will it take to show quarter over quarter revenue increases ? How long will it take for LU to be a competitive player again ? How long till it's the darling of Wall Street again? Will this be a quick or long and agonizing turnaround story ? Will it even be able to turn itself around after it has sold off the fiber assets, and whatever else it has to dump overboard with the tens of thousands of employees ?
All things I would look at while you wait for the talking heads to tell you "It's OK. It can't get worse". Funny thing is that they've been playing that same broken record daily on CNBC since the NAZ failed to give us that New Year's rally in 2000. You know... the one we all expected and were guaranteed by the same talking heads in December 1999.
My advice to you, is to ignore the talking heads. Roll up your sleeves and dig into all the info you can get about the telecom sector. It helps a bit if you work in that sector. I indirectly do, and it helps me formulate my views of the sector. Get dirty man. Soak it all up and really try to understand the sector as berst as you can. It can only help, and it's fun and educational too. Think about all the girls you'll impress with that savvy talk. After you have done your research and feel you have figured it all out, then turn on the TV and see what the talking heads have to say, and compare their "words of wisdom" against your research. You may have an orgasmic awakening and realize that they are exactly that... TALKING HEADS.
But. Of course, you first have to get over your biggest fear. The fear of missing the "bottom". How about taking a step back and look at all of the segments in the telecom sector. Does it look like it will run away to the upside from you tomorrow ? Next week ? Next month, or the month after ? If not, then why worry about missing the bottom ?
All just my thoughts. I could be wrong. After all. I'm not a talking head. So what do I know.
Twick |
