Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Lucretius who started this subject	7/25/2001 1:33:16 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) of 436258

Where Are The Bears? The Myth Of Investor Pessimism With the negative earnings reports and reduced forward guidance now out there for all to see, the bulls are saying they are buying because everyone is so pessimistic, but is that really so? We think not. While there’s a lot of pessimistic news around as well as a lot of moaning by investors, the pessimism doesn’t show up when you actually measure it numerically. Let’s take a look at the numbers. The Investor’s Intelligence Survey of advisory bulls and bears has long been an accurate gauge of overall investor sentiment. At the major market troughs in 1974, 1982 and 1990 the percentage of bears equaled 58% or higher, whereas the current number is only 23%, indicating a definite dearth of bearish sentiment when compared to previous bottoms. This conclusion is also supported by the low level of equity mutual fund cash as a percent of assets. Mutual fund portfolio managers raise cash holdings when they are concerned about the market and keep relatively low amounts of cash when they feel optimistic. For example cash was more than 11% of mutual fund assets at the troughs in 1974, 1982 and 1990, but was only 4.8% in May, the most recently reported month. This is near the low end of the range for the past 30 years, and indicates that if these managers are really pessimistic they certainly have not translated their beliefs into action. If this isn’t enough, both the ISI survey of professional money managers and the Merrill Lynch tally of Wall street strategists show record or near-record allocations to stocks in their respective portfolios. So the next time you hear anyone say that they are bullish because everyone else is so bearish, take it with a grain of salt. The vast majority is still bullish and is in a state of denial that the game has changed and that the economic and financial climate is in a state of disarray with no visibility on the horizon. Comstock Partners

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next