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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 101.44

+3.5%

Nov 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Ken Benes who wrote (73955)	7/25/2001 3:12:57 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) of 116756

Ken, the Dow Jones and S&P Utilities Indexes have broken below their year-long trading ranges this week as the gradual decline of the last two months appears to be reaching a climactic stage. Near and intermediate term trend-related momentum indicators for both of these indexes are now at, or very close to, the level of oversold conditions that has usually produced at least a near term rally, and often a strong bottom and subsequent sustained new advance, in recent years. That group could therefore be close to a significant low and an initial rebound. That would not be good for the POG. However, IMO a retest of that benchmark low will likely be needed following the initial rally prior to the start of a durable advance. The Dow Jones Utilities Index, which closed at 328 yesterday, appears to have support at 305-310 and initial resistance on rallies at 350-360. The Federal Reserve’s six consecutive interest rate cuts this year and strong consumer confidence have fired up home purchases and prompted borrowers to cut their home loan costs by refinancing. But next year, as the number of people in a position to refinance decreases, the volume of lending will shrink. Some of the home buiders look like good short sale candidates as we head into the fall. "Bulls and Bears" do indeed "make money." It is the "Pigs who get slaughtered."

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