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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

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Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: TWICK who wrote (80880)	7/25/2001 4:22:03 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Actually, I meant the relative attractiveness of telecom equipment versus the PC sector for example--in the near to intermediate term. If the market is in rally mode, the ones with the better near term catalysts have a better chance to outperform...in this case Windows XP launch. I am a big believer in this operating system's ability launch to influence corporate spending because of the need to do more hardware upgrades instead of just loading a new Windows. Might even create a near term PC slowdown but the market may be able to look past the next 3 months. As Michael Dell has been pointing out, this would be the next upgrade cycle after the spending on PCs ahead of Y2K. The aggressive spending plans by Intel also suggest the same possibilities. Appears to be the only company interested in spending big time in a down economic environment. As I have noted before, there is a whole new market for PCs---China for example. You can get pirated copies of Windows but there is no way you will get a Pentium 4 this way. High PE for Intel is misleading, imho. Just need to wait until the margins expand. Also the factor of single digit stocks can't be bought by mutual funds and LU, NT, JDSU makes them relatively less attractive than PC sector (MSFT, INTC, and the boxmakers like Dell etc..). JMHO.

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