JULY 25 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - lower midrange
SPX - lower midrange
OEX - lower midrange
NAZ - lower midrange/borderline oversold
NDX - lower midrange/borderline oversold
SOX - lower midrange, HAMMER
VIX - midrange
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs - -78
Yesterday I got INTRADAY CLASS 1 & 2 BUY signals, but not CLOSING signals, which are more reliable. For the DOW/SPX/OEX, I have to say that the reversal upwards started yesterday, since those 3 indices already fulfilled their minimum requirements.
I have to admit that I would be more comfortable with a FIRM CLASS 1 BUY signal, but with the DOW/SPX/OEX already fullfilling the minimum requirement, thats bullish for those indices.
The NAZ/NDX was not as strong as the DOW/SPX. Also the NAZ NEW HI-LOs was negative 78 and the NEW LOWs doubled the NEW HIGHs. If such continues, that would be a negative and a hint that the forthcoming rally in the NAZ/NDX should be small/weak.
Definitely getting some mixed signals, but as mentioned yesterday, Im still more inclined that this forthcoming rally should not be that strong and should produce a LOWER HIGH. Of course if market internals and other issues start to improve significantly, things could turn bullish. Not predicting, just watching daily for as many clues as possible.
Subjectively, the market is now approaching the END-of-MONTH-RALLY period. Maybe thats what helped todays rally. Just wished I got that CLASS 1 BUY signal.
If this reversal continues, it would actually be a bullish hint, in that the reversal started before getting low enough for a CLASS 1 BUY. Again, it just may be the END-of-MONTH which may be skewing things. For now Im slightly more inclined with the rally continuing some in light of the END-of-MONTH rally, but that doesnt mean that the market heads straight up - could see some slight down oscillations within this short-term rally.
In my personal mutual fund account, I closed most of my short positions(USPIX) yesterday, leaving a very small short-position, with about 97% cash. Im made no new trades in the mutual fund account, but in my trading account I did open a small long position in a biotech. |
