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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.550-0.9%Jan 16 3:59 PM EST
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To: carranza2 who wrote (14146)7/25/2001 6:30:50 PM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (2) of 34857
 
<< . I don't care how you slice it, dice it or spin it, using five year olds who can hardly dial a phone is absolutely positively not conservative. >>

XUrbia is a small but advanced market.

It is populated only by a husband and wife, their 3 children ages 4, 7, and 12, and a pet chimpanzee called Quidiot.

Husband has a business and a personal sub (2).

Wife has a personal sub (1) but no business sub.

Oldest child has a personal sub (1), the younger 2 don't.

Their household security system and heating system both have M2M interfaces (2).

XUrbia is at 86% saturation because they have 6 subscriptions out of a statistically possible 7.

When the 4 year old turns 5 (and assuming he has no mobile) XUrbia will be at 75% saturation, because 100% penetration of XUrbia now occurs statistically at 8 devices (subscriptions) rather than 7.

... but if the 7 year old turns 8 and he is given a mobile XUrbia will be 88% saturated wireless wise.

... and if Quidiot is fitted with a collar with an embedded GPS mobile device XUrbia just done reached saturation (EMC wise).

If both of the youngsters are given phones and wifey poo adds a business subscription XUrbia has simply exceeded the point at which no more potential growth was predicted.

Key to this is that "Key Assumptions underlying this calculation" refer to the calculations that make up "the saturation point" or "top of the s-curve", not the subscribers being forecasted.

... so I wouldn't worry too much about 5 year olds running around the Brazilian Rain Forest with handsets. Brazil will not reach 100% saturation as quickly as XUrbia.

Best,

- Eric -
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