EMC's proprietary forecast uses the Pearl (s-curve) curve as its underlying algorithm, and although statistically based, the forecast also accounts for EMC's own judgmental opinion.
A key part of EMC's latest forecast is the assumption that some markets will grow beyond the traditional saturation point of 100% penetration.
In other words, five year olds count because we say they do, and we're not saying why they do. Otherwise, we can't have saturation at more than 100% penetration, as we predict. If the speed-dialing toddlers, the MSM-equipped chimps, the cat, the dog, and Robbie the Robot are not counted, fewer cellular accounts are forecast. Not good if you're trying to make the market look bigger than it might actually be in the future. A statistical game in which the results may drive the assumptions.
I thought the consultants had learned their lesson when the spectrum/3G party ended and the hangover began.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
How many XUrbias will there be? How many households like the one you depict will exist?
In all seriousness, I buy the scenario, but not for a long, long time. Too far into the future for any meaningful predictions to be made by anyone. |
