hi John,
cree revenues...
53,365,000 last report
44,726,000 this report
40-45,000,000 projected for current quarter.
the old school says to sell a stock with 2 quarters of declining growth.
cree revenues last year 177,227,000 with net margin of 27%...for earnings of 48,283,000 or .64 per share.
projected revenues for this year are 200-220,000,000 at 20% net margins for 40-44,000,000 net or .55-.61 per share.
the order backlog is impressive especially considering that the current osram contract is near the end.
current projected PE for this year will be 35-39 based on yesterday's closing price. that is pretty high (too high imo) for the declining margins.
the shorts were right about the margins.
the new products still have to cross the chasm...the most difficult time...i will consider buying when the products are in the bowling alley and start knocking down some big pins.
the blue laser may be cree's most important product but it is no where close to the chasm yet.
for the first time, i consider cree quite vulnerable.
unclewest |
